At first glance, that might seem like an easy choice. Unemployment and Underemployment Rates are sky high and so is the US Government Debt. Real GDP Growth is tame.

The Democrats are in control. Throw the Bums Out!

But savvy Independents know it is not nearly that simple.

Independent voters perceptively realize that when you spend more than $800 bil on an Economic Stimulus Plan, a key focus must be on initiatives that directly create private sector jobs. Going the indirect route with spending on very nice initiatives is off course when you are dealing with such a huge US Government Debt. And by far the best private sector job creation initiative in the original Economic Stimulus Plan…Businesses Receiving Jobs Tax Credits for Hiring Workers…unfortunately bit the dust in the US Congress.

With the US economy continuing to be so horrible and many US citizens suffering so much, the Obama Administration’s Economic Team, as well as both the Democrats and Republicans in the US Congress, should have come up with much bolder, wiser ideas to get the US economy out of this incredibly deep ditch. Obama’s Economic Team and the Democrats in Congress came up with a whole lot of initiatives, it’s just that none of them were sufficiently bold. When the US economy is so severely damaged structurally by the many financial aftershocks of the 2000s Lost Decade, initiatives must be bold, and of course, wisely funded.

But how did the Republicans in the US Congress deal with this huge US economic problem? Wise Independents are keenly aware that the Republicans in the US Congress offered no ideas, only obstruction. Which is worse….offering many ideas, although none of them are bold, or refusing to offer any ideas at all, and instead just following a whole-scale strategy of obstruction?

As bad as the US economy is right now, it would be much worse if the Republicans would have been in control. Let me provide some historical data that backs up this assertion.

Being strongly analytical and very thorough in their research, Independent voters are very aware of how the US economy has historically fared since the end of World War II under both Democrat and Republican control, particularly on the three critical economic issues that will determine the midterm national elections in November 2010: Unemployment Rates, Real GDP Growth, and US Debt Increases. They know that on all three of these key metrics, the US economy has consistently fared far better under Democrat control than under Republican control, as you can clearly see from the below following three charts:

Changes in US Unemployment Rates during All Presidential Terms since WWII from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics

US Unemployment Rate Declines:
Clinton……(Democrat)…….Dec 1992 to Dec 2000…..down 3.5%
Reagan……(Republican)…….Dec 1980 to Dec 1988…..down 1.9%
JFK/LBJ…….(Democrat)……Dec 1960 to Dec 1964…..down 1.6%
LBJ………….(Democrat)……Dec 1964 to Dec 1968…..down 1.6%
Truman…..(Democrat)……Dec 1948 to Dec 1952…..down 1.3%
Carter……..(Democrat)…….Dec 1976 to Dec 1980….down 0.6%

US Unemployment Rate Increases:
Nixon…………(Republican)…..Dec 1968 to Dec 1972…..up 1.8%
Bush 1………..(Republican)…..Dec 1988 to Dec 1992…..up 2.1%
Nixon/Ford…(Republican)…..Dec 1972 to Dec 1976…..up 2.6%
Bush 2………..(Republican)…..Dec 2000 to Dec 2008…..up 3.5%
Ike…………….(Republican)…..Dec 1952 to Dec 1960…..up 3.9%

Average Annual US Real GDP Growth during All Presidential Terms since WWII from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Average Annual US Real GDP Increases above 3.00%:
LBJ…………(Democrat)…..Dec 1964 to Dec 1968…..5.05%
Truman…..(Democrat)…..Dec 1948 to Dec 1952…..4.93%
JFK/LBJ……(Democrat)…..Dec 1960 to Dec 1964…..4.65%
Clinton……(Democrat)…..Dec 1992 to Dec 2000…..3.88%
Reagan……(Republican)…..Dec 1980 to Dec 1988…..3.40%
Carter……..(Democrat)…..Dec 1976 to Dec 1980…..3.25%

Average Annual US Real GDP Increases of 3.00% or less:
Ike……………(Republican)…Dec 1952 to Dec 1960…..3.00%
Nixon………..(Republican)…Dec 1968 to Dec 1972…..3.00%
Nixon/Ford..(Republican)…Dec 1972 to Dec 1976…..2.60%
Bush 1……….(Republican)…Dec 1988 to Dec 1992….2.18%
Bush 2……….(Republican)…Dec 2000 to Dec 2008….2.09%

Average Annual US Public Debt Added during All Presidential Terms since 1976 from the US Bureau of Public Debt

Bush 2…(Republican)…Dec 2000 to Dec 2008…$630 bil per year
Bush 1…(Republican)…Dec 1988 to Dec 1992…$373 bil per year
Reagan..(Republican)…Dec 1980 to Dec 1988….$219 bil per year
Clinton…(Democrat)…….Dec 1992 to Dec 2000…$186 bil per year
Carter….(Democrat)…….Dec 1976 to Dec 1980….$ 69 bil per year

I think that the main reason the US economy has consistently performed so much better under Democrat control than under Republican control is that when the US economy turns down substantially, Republicans tend to let the economic cycle handle it, whereas Democrats tend to take a much more proactive role. And this is consistent with what has gone on in the current horrible jobless recovery, where the Republicans have sat on the sidelines, whereas the Democrats have repeatedly tried many modest job creating initiatives, and the Republicans in the US Congress have repeatedly stopped them in their tracks.

When you look at the above US Real GDP average annual growth numbers, I think a very salient point is that the investment tax credit, first initiated by the visionary JFK in 1962, played a very significant role in the very high real GDP growth rates in the JFK and LBJ years. In fact, look at these just incredible back-to-back real US GDP growth rates in the earlier years of the 1960 decade, when the investment tax credit was first in effect:

1962 JFK…..6.1%
1963 JFK…..4.4%
1964 LBJ…..5.8%
1965 LBJ…..6.4%
1966 LBJ…..6.5%

Whoa! Now these are growth numbers the US economy now needs. The one downside to the investment tax credit is that it accelerates the US economy so much that it can bring with it the risk of inflation. But then if you are one of the roughly 30 million US citizens, who is now unemployed, underemployed, or gave up looking for a job, I don’t think inflation is on your radar screen.

The recent Republican proposal of reducing the top income tax rate starting in 2011, both on individuals and on corporations, and then asserting that this will indirectly trickle down and benefit the US economy, lacks intellectual merit.

The Republicans are significantly underrating the financial wisdom of Independent voters, who tend to be very thoughtful skeptics. Consistent with the highly regarded and non-partisan CBO, Independent voters know that a drop in the top income tax rate does very little to create jobs, but does substantially increases the US deficit. And Independents also know that a drop in the top income tax rate also further widens the huge and continually widening gap between the very wealthy and everyone else.

Given the deep economic crater the Obama Administration inherited from the previous Republican Administration, and given the Republicans in the US Congress whole-scale strategy of offering no ideas on the US economy, only obstruction, and further, given that historically the US economy has consistently fared much better under Democratic control than under Republican control, I think it only makes sense that many savvy Independents will end up voting Democratic in the upcoming National elections.

And there are other Voter Groups where the Unemployment Picture Dominates all other issues. These Voter Groups include the roughly 30 million who are unemployed, underemployed or have given up looking for a job. Also included here are the many employed full time, but not at a livable wage. In addition, included here are the many employed full time at a livable wage, but who are scared to death of losing their jobs. Further, included here in this Voter Group are the many highly perceptive college students, seeing how incredibly difficult it has been for their college graduate friends to find a full-time job at a decent pay. All of these Voter Groups clearly understand the importance of the country being under Democratic control, where Employment Prospects have been substantially better than when the US was under Republican control.

I’ll make a prediction….the Republicans will not be picking up nearly as many seats in November 2010 as they expect to.

Turning my focus to the National Democratic candidates from Southern Indiana, Brad Ellsworth (running for the US Senate), and Trent Van Haaften and Baron Hill (both running for the US House) are flat out intense fiscal hawks. If either Peyton Manning or Drew Brees were the offensively explosive US Deficit, I can think of no better threesome I would want in the US Congress on US Defense to stop this ever exploding US Deficit Air Assault. No other State has a threesome that can match the US Deficit Defense Against Frivolous Government Spending…..as that provided by this Hoosier Trifecta.

And all three of them also perceptively share the keen vision of the important role the massive offshoring of US jobs by large US multinational corps played in putting the country in such a deep economic hole. And they all intend to do everything in their power to turn this financial devastating offshoring of US jobs trend around.

When I study what all three of them so intensely stand for, and have such wise initiatives to back this up…..Jobs and Deficit Reduction…..it is easy for me to see why the US economy has consistently fared so much better historically under Democratic control than under Republican control.

Their three Republican opponents are all staunch supporters of large multinational corps, and have little problem with the further widening of the enormous gap between the very wealthy and everyone else.

JFK Family Fun Day
August 28th 12-8PM
Location: Burdette Park
Cost is $10 per family and this includes access to the pool, putt-putt golf, food, beverages, and great Democratic candidates and speakers such as Secretary of State Candidate Vop Osili, House Speaker Pat Bauer, Sheriff Eric Williams, and many others. Also, there will be a raffle at the event that will feature an air hockey table, foosball table, Nascar ceiling fan, and a children’s bike. Tickets for the raffle will be 6 for $5 or $1 per ticket.
Please RSVP to Rick Davis @ 598-7123

Why in the world would any fair-minded independent voter vote for someone who previously served in the US Senate for 18 years, and then subsequently worked for 5 years as a lobbyist for big Washington law firms lobbying this same US Senate?….and especially so since these special interest lobbying firms greased the skids of their Big Multinational Corp clients by facilitating the massive offshoring of US jobs, the financial aftershocks of which is the main cause of the country’s double economic crisis it now faces…Staggering Unemployment/Underemployment and Massive US Debt?

To take it a step further, since this special interest lobbying has been so detrimental to the country’s economy, I think it is only fair that the US now institute an annual gross receipts tax on the lobbying revenue of firms engaged in lobbying and use the resultant tax proceeds to fund desperately needed US private sector job creation.

I would make this annual gross receipts tax on firms engaged in lobbying highly progressive. To be fair, I think a certain amount of gross receipts from lobbying should be tax free. But above this exempt amount, there should be a gross receipts tax starting at say 10%, which progressively keeps increasing so that the largest amount of gross receipts from lobbying would get taxed at say 70%. Thus, the more special interest lobbying you do, the higher gross receipts tax rate you pay.

Clearly, the lobbying sections of the large law firms should be assessed this gross receipts tax on their gross receipts from lobbying. But also, I think non-profit organizations involved heavily in lobbying for industry special interests should also be subject to this gross receipts tax.

When you think about it, there are a handful of large non-profit organizations that have severely damaged the US economy in the 2000s Lost Decade, and continue to do so.

All Big US Multinational Corp non-profit organizations like the Business Roundtable, numerous special industry organizations, as well as many other organizations, have all successfully lobbied for the offshoring of US jobs, along with the related windfall tax benefits, despite the massively detrimental effect to the country and to its citizens, and thus, in all fairness, should be assessed an annual gross receipts tax.

Big Oil lobbying organizations like the American Petroleum Institute have also severely damaged the US economy by playing a pivotal role in the placing of excessive energy cost burdens on US citizens and US businesses, and thus, in all fairness, should be assessed an annual gross receipts tax.

Also, three very influential non-profit health care organizations played instrumental roles in creating the 2000s Lost Decade, where health care costs went through the roof to US individuals, to US businesses and to the US and State Governments. More than any other non-profit organization, I think the American Hospital Association has been the major cause of these massively higher health care costs. Also, through their highly effective efforts, the America’s Health Insurance Plans and the America Pharmaceutical Association have both added much to the country’s health care costs. And the efforts of all three of these lobbying organizations caused the health care costs in the recent US Health Care legislation to be hundreds of billions of dollars higher than they should have been. Thus, in all fairness, all three of these non-profit organizations, should be assessed a gross receipts tax.

People a lot smarter than me can determine specifically which other non-profit organizations performing lobbying should, in all fairness, be assessed an annual gross receipts tax to fund US private sector job creation.

Laurel

Evansville For Change is hosting a meet & greet with some of our local candidates.  Take this opportunity to become familiar with the candidates and their views and to ask questions about issues that are important to you.

The following candidates have been invited: Sheriff Eric Williams;  Commissioner Troy Tornatta;  County Prosecutor Stan Levco; County Council Stephanie Terry;  County Council Hayden Barth;  County Assessor Jonathan Weaver;  County Auditor Maura Robinson; and Knight Township Trustee Kathryn Martin.

We are meeting on Tuesday, July 20th, at 6:00 PM in Central Library’s Browning Conference Room B.  The meeting will last approximately 2 hours.

Central Library is located at 200 SE Martin Luther King, JR. BLVD.

You may RSVP on line or call me at 812-459-8517.

Hope to see you there.

Laurel

We have volunteered at this event in the past.
Usually they need help cooking hotdogs and cleaning up neighborhood.

If you have a shirt from a previous walk, please wear it as they are out (or close to out).

Big US Multinational Corps Should Help Fund Bold US Job Creation and Robust US Debt Reduction